It wasn’t long ago that Democrats reigned in Louisiana.

In the 2000s, the Republican Party had long since seized control of most other Southern states. But Kathleen Blanco still won her 2003 race for Louisiana governor; Democrats for a time held three Louisiana congressional seats and, until 2010, the party still controlled both chambers of the state Legislature.

When the GOP expected in 2015 to sweep the Governor’s Mansion and most other statewide offices, the stunning election victory of a little-known state representative named John Bel Edwards suggested that Louisiana’s politics had enough idiosyncrasy to keep the party alive.

If any Democrats still harbored that hope, it crumbled in spectacular fashion last Saturday night.

Few expected a Democrat to succeed Edwards, who is term limited after eight years in the governor's office. But the failure of the party to even force a runoff against Jeff Landry, a far-right Republican and staunch ally of President Donald Trump, has raised existential questions about how the party can regain a foothold in state politics.

Shawn Wilson, the only major Democrat in the race, garnered just 26% of the vote. GOP candidates together received more than 65%.

“There is a total lack of energy, hope or excitement across the board,” said Melissa Flournoy, a longtime liberal activist and former Democratic state lawmaker representing the Shreveport area. “It’s like the election that didn’t happen.”

Long before election day, the writing was on the wall. Republicans secured majorities in the Legislature before voting even began because Democrats didn’t field candidates to run against most Republicans. Once the election cycle ends, the GOP is expected to maintain supermajorities in both chambers.

Democrats had a staggering 180,000 fewer registered voters than they did in 2015 going into the election, while Republicans had gained 190,000 voters, many of them conservative “blue dog” Democrats who had long ago switched parties in practice.

Meanwhile, earlier this year, the party’s previous chair, former state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, was sentenced to 22 months in prison for stealing funds from the party.

LOUISIANA GOVERNOR ELECTION RESULTS: Republican Governor-Elect Jeff Landry came in first in 60 parishes in Saturday's election, winning a majority in 48 parishes. His top opponent, Democrat Shawn Wilson, came out on top in 4 parishes and only broke the 50% mark in New Orleans, where he won 70.6% of the vote.

Barring a stunning outcome in the November runoffs for Secretary of State and Treasurer, Democrats will be completely frozen out of power in Baton Rouge for the coming four years.

The state will almost certainly experience a dramatic rightward shift in politics.

J. Miles Coleman, a Louisiana native who serves as associate editor of the politics newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, said Saturday felt similar to when Mary Landrieu lost her Senate reelection bid in 2014, giving Republicans complete control of statewide offices at that time. He sees the Louisiana Democratic party’s losses as part of a broader realignment across the South that was a long time coming and that was supercharged by President Donald Trump.

“We’re not that different anymore,” he said. “What wins at the national level is increasingly taking hold at the local level as well.”

Tensions spill over

A debate about what it means to be a Louisiana Democrat that quietly smoldered for years is now raging in the open.

Democrats retain strength in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport but most of the rest of the state is dominated by the GOP. Key questions include whether the party should seek to win back lost White voters by moderating on social issues such as abortion and guns, or whether it should double down on progressive causes to fire up turnout in cities. The U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has reignited questions about abortion politics, especially since polls have shown a shift in favor of abortion rights here after the state’s "trigger law” that outlaws most abortions took effect last year.

Some party activists and elected officials are calling for party leader Katie Bernhardt to resign.

Under her leadership, Democrats did not mount challengers to 44 Republican state House and Senate candidates, and the party struggled to fundraise. Reports show that the state GOP spent $1.2 million to the Democratic Party’s $28,000 in the month before the primary. And Landry got the support of many of the state’s biggest trial lawyers, which traditionally support Democrats.

Bernhardt also infuriated some Democrats this year by flirting with a run for governor herself.

Lynda Woolard, a party activist who ran against Bernhardt, lamented the fact that the party handed over a majority of the Legislature by not fielding enough candidates. She said there was a sense of inevitability to a Landry governorship early on.

“It was very remarkable that there was this resignation from the very beginning,” she said. “It certainly helped (Landry) because if people think it’s inevitable, why are they going to put in the work to stop it?”

In a statement, Bernhardt said Democrats knew the odds were against them in the governor’s race. The state party is turning its focus to the runoff races while also starting to recruit candidates for future elections, she said.

Shawn Wilson thanks supporters during his election night party at the Westin in New Orleans, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. Jeff Landry is the next governor of Louisiana. (Photo by Sophia Germer, The Times-Picayune)

STAFF PHOTO BY SOPHIA GERMER

“We cannot focus on Saturday night and beat a dead horse as we have three amazing candidates in the runoff and have made history with two Democratic women in the race,” she said. “Now isn't the time to be divided or further a personal agenda, now is the time to unify so that we may elect our Democratic ticket.”

State Rep. Mandie Landry, an incumbent New Orleans Democrat who on Saturday demolished a challenger backed by establishment Democratic leaders, is seeking to recruit new members to the state party committee that votes on the chair.

What went wrong

In an interview, Wilson cited the trial lawyers’ support for Landry as part of the reason his campaign struggled with fundraising. But he said the state party's recent controversies also caused donors to balk and that Democratic power brokers did not do enough to turn out voters.

"Everybody who is Democratically aligned could have done more," Wilson said.

On election night, he added, "The undecideds on the Republican side broke to Jeff. The undecideds on the Democratic side chose not to vote.”

Even with a possible change in leadership, there are no easy answers for the party because a huge share of Louisianans consistently vote against Democrats at the national level. Republicans have repeatedly sought to tie Louisiana Democrats to President Joe Biden and other national figures.

The new electoral math for Democrats is also difficult.

For years, the party relied on a tried-and-true formula to win statewide elections: Win 90% of the overwhelmingly Democratic Black vote, 30% of the White vote and make sure Black voters comprise a third of the electorate. That formula collapsed amid Saturday’s tepid turnout.

Louisiana gubernatorial candidate Jeff Landry speaks to supports during a watch party at Broussard Ballroom on Saturday, October 14, 2023 in Broussard, La..

STAFF PHOTO BY Brad Kemp

‘We’ve seen this before’

On Saturday, even turnout in Democratic strongholds was abysmal. Only 27% of Orleans Parish residents voted, the lowest rate in the state. Wilson won far fewer votes in New Orleans than Edwards in the 2019 primary, and Orleans was the only parish where Wilson cracked 50% of the vote.

Gary Chambers, a progressive Democratic activist who has run unsuccessfully for several seats, said party leadership has been misguided.

“We had this notion we would chase the rural vote,” he said during a recent radio interview. “And now we’re not even turning out New Orleans.”

Some party activists lament a turn away from the “get-out-the-vote” tactics that were a fixture of Democratic campaigns in years past, such as door knocking and enlisting volunteers to drive people to the polls.

In majority-Black communities across Louisiana, the result is a pool of voters who felt alienated and undervalued, said Jay Banks, a former Democrat on the New Orleans City Council and member of the grassroots Black Organization for Leadership Development, known as BOLD.

“The Democrat party assumes that people are just going to go and vote just because, but they don’t make that assumption about any other demographic other than Black voters,” Banks said. “I think that’s unfortunate. I think Black folks get the blame for when things go wrong and don’t get credit when things go right.”

In an interview, Edwards cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the fate of the Democratic Party. He cited his gubernatorial win in 2015 as an example, saying political analysts pronounced the party dead after Republican Bobby Jindal’s 2011 landslide win in the governor’s race.

“People predicted the demise of the Democratic Party and said we couldn’t win anymore, and four years later I won by 12 points,” he said. “We’ve seen this before.”